23.10.202612:06 Analisis Forex & Kajian: US stock market to tumble? #SPX and #NDX may fall

Look at the S&P 500. Since August, the index has been trading in a fairly tight range after hitting another high. The picture is similar in the technology-heavy Nasdaq, which largely mirrors S&P 500 moves.

What does this mean, and what could happen next? Both indices are sitting at strong support levels, as technical charts show. There are two broad negatives for US equities. First, there is a lack of new strong drivers to buy AI-related stocks—the theme that previously attracted investors. Cooling interest in AI, combined with increasing flows into safe-haven government bonds, could trigger broad profit-taking in equities and become the basis for a decline in stock indices.

The second reason is geopolitics: the Middle East crisis. Capital—and not only capital, but many European companies—has fled to the United States. That has benefited the US financial market, but demand cannot remain permanent; the current wave of positive flows will eventually give way to negative sentiment, and that negative sentiment is currently preventing a new wave of equity buying.

From a technical standpoint, a sell-off is likely to begin if these indices break important support levels. A Fed pause or continued cross-border capital inflows will not be enough to stop the move if negative drivers persist—high oil prices, the Middle East and Ukraine crises, and weaker-than-expected earnings in AI-linked names.

What to expect today

I expect the risk of falling equity demand to push US stock indices down and with them CFD contracts on those indices.

Forecast for today:

#SPX

The SP 500 futures CFD sits above support at 7,633.45. A break below that level could lead to a fall toward 7,526.38. A sell trigger could be 7,628.66, with a stop-loss at 7,678.55.

#NDX

The NASDAQ-100 futures CFD sits above support at 28,868.00. A break below that level could lead to a fall toward 28,220.50. A sell trigger could be 28,789.00, with a stop-loss at 29,271.40.