23.10.202611:36 Analisis Forex & Kajian: AI fails to give miners breather

As recent data shows Bitcoin's hashrate has returned to a seven-month high even as the largest public miners shift capacity into artificial intelligence. The seven-day average rose above 1 zettahash per second—1,000 exahashes—the highest level since March 3. That implies capacity moved into AI was quickly replaced, and competition among the remaining miners has not eased.

That is reflected in difficulty, which increased 5.92%. BlocksBridge reports, however, that the scale of the move into AI is material. The firm previously recorded a 23% drop in realized hash rate at public miners, while those companies' revenue from AI and high-performance computing rose 52% quarter-on-quarter. The freed equipment is estimated at roughly $1.5 billion. A possible explanation for the return of capacity is the secondary market: small and medium miners buy used rigs from large operators. For those with cheap power, used machines can be more economical than new ones. It remains unclear what share of sold equipment actually came from public firms and how much of it returned to the mining network.

Some market participants read the rise in capacity as an indirect positive for price. A higher hash rate means stronger security and better fundamentals for Bitcoin as a store of value. Recall that in the recent list of arguments against a new bear market, a miner build-out was an important point. Notably, the current acceleration of difficulty supports that view, but price has not yet responded. Bitcoin trades around $81,800, below the week high near $85,000.

I believe that in the coming weeks rising difficulty will first hurt weaker miners with high electricity costs and older rigs. They will need to sell mined coins more frequently, adding supply to the market when buyers are already cautious. But in the medium term, a persistently high hash rate together with rising institutional interest in mining firms is supportive for Bitcoin, and I expect the market will begin to price that in after the Fed's decision next week.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Technical picture for Bitcoin. Buyers are currently targeting a reclaim of $82,800, which would open a direct path to $84,500 and then toward $87,100; breaking $87,100 would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $80,900. A return of the trading instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,800. The most distant downside target would be around $76,900.

Technical picture for Ethereum. A clear hold above $2,417 would open a direct path to $2,508. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,600; breaking that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,339. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,274. The most distant downside target would be around $2,231.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.