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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rose to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3368 on Friday, rebounded from this level, and reversed in favor of the US dollar. The new week began with a decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3272. At present, the pound has broken the bearish trend, and the bulls can feel somewhat more confident. However, the new week had barely begun when the pound started falling again. A rebound from the 1.3272 level would favor the bulls and could lead to a modest rise toward 1.3368.
The market situation has turned bullish. Will it last? The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the new upward wave has also broken above the previous high. Thus, the bulls have temporarily taken the initiative. The FOMC's tighter monetary policy and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Perhaps the time has now come for a bullish counterattack.
On Friday, the news background supported the British pound despite a strong US industrial production report. Earlier that night, Kevin Warsh stated that he would not make important monetary policy decisions in advance and that the US central bank had no clearly defined interest rate path. Thus, the FOMC president declined to comment on the latest inflation reports, which showed higher readings than traders had expected. The market reacted negatively and began selling the dollar again. This process did not last long, but the pound's prospects currently look better than those of the euro. On Wednesday, the UK will publish its inflation report, which will most likely show an increase, as in the United States and the European Union. It remains uncertain whether the market will react to this release, but it represents another opportunity for the pound. If UK inflation rises to 3.4%, this would mean that the Bank of England could begin tackling the inflation problem in the near future. However, it is worth noting that the market is ignoring a similar factor affecting the euro. Sterling has a chance to extend its gains, but the dollar could regain the upper hand.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3159 and reversed in favor of the British currency, rising toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3277. The technical picture on the hourly chart is currently more convincing, so the hourly chart is the one to focus on. No new developing divergences are currently visible in any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among Non-commercial traders became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 1,074, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,279. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 44,000 versus 151,000, respectively. The bears' advantage is growing again. Previously, their dominance was unquestionable, but it is now less clear-cut because the news background has changed in recent months.
The bearish trend in sterling is still unconvincing, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted its focus toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. It is also uncertain whether they will resume in the near future.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On October 19, the economic calendar contains no significant releases. The economic news background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from the 1.3368 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3272. These positions can remain open today. Buying was possible after the pair closed above 1.3272, with a target of 1.3368. This target has been reached. New long positions can be considered following a rebound from 1.3272, with a target of 1.3368.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3272 to 1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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