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Gold returned to its decline today and is now trading around $4,144 per ounce, trying to halt a two-day drop that has seen the metal lose 0.8%. Silver rose 0.1% to $59.20 versus $60.57 yesterday; platinum was unchanged, and palladium climbed.
The morning stabilization in gold was driven by remarks from New York Federal Reserve president John Williams. He considers another rate hike this year appropriate but sees no need to tighten further in 2027. After those comments, US Treasury yields eased slightly, and gold—which pays no interest—typically benefits from a softer rate outlook.
However, oil is hampering a full recovery. Brent trades above $106 per barrel as a renewed wave of attacks in the Middle East again threatens energy supplies. Expensive oil fuels inflation and strengthens the case for higher rates, which weighs on gold. In recent months, that chain has dictated the metal's behavior, and today it is restraining any rally.
The main event of the day lies ahead. US consumer-price data due on Wednesday could provide clues about the Fed's rate path — the central bank last month raised rates for the first time since 2023. Swap markets price a low probability of a hike at this month's meeting but roughly a 90% chance of a December increase. Thus, considerable tightening is already priced in, and a strong inflation print would only increase pressure on gold, while a soft print would let the metal recover its losses.
Notably, price action is surprisingly calm even as trend-following funds actively sell. Deutsche Bank noted the market is supported by steady physical demand for gold, and commercial and non-commercial flows are combining to offset algorithmic selling. Retail investors remain largely absent. I believe physical demand is preventing the metal from falling further, but for a new upward impulse, gold needs an external catalyst.
My view: until CPI is released, gold will most likely trade in a narrow band around $4,165 while buyers and sellers wait. If inflation is soft and oil stays below $106, I expect attempts to return toward $4,200 and above. If the index surprises to the upside, bets on a December hike will strengthen, yields will rise, and gold will come under renewed pressure.
Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,192 to target $4,249, above which a breakout will be difficult. The furthest upside target is the $4,304 area. On the downside, bears will target $4,124; if they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold to a low of $4,062, with the potential to extend to $4,047.
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