13.10.202609:41 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Gold Supported by Cheaper Oil Ahead of Key Inflation Data

Gold rose 0.7% today, briefly touching $4,200 per ounce. Silver gained 0.5% to $60.57, and platinum and palladium also advanced.

The main theme this week is traders taking a wait-and-see stance ahead of tomorrow's US inflation data. Swap markets price in a low probability of a Federal Reserve hike in October and one hike before year-end. That implies the market largely views the October 28 meeting as a pause, with the debate focused on December. For gold, this is a comfortable backdrop because the absence of an immediate tightening reduces the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

A second support factor is oil. Brent fell to about $105 per barrel after three days of gains, which helped gold. Since late February, when the US–Iran conflict began, gold has often moved opposite oil because of a chain effect: expensive oil accelerates inflation expectations; they increase Fed tightening rates; bond yields rise; and this puts pressure on gold, which does not generate interest. When oil eases, the chain works in reverse, benefiting gold holders and hurting those betting on further yield rises.

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack also played a role. She said smaller, more frequent rate adjustments help keep inflation expectations in check but did not endorse an October hike. That eased some fear of an immediate move, preventing a stronger dollar and allowing gold to test $4,200. Hawkish rhetoric without a concrete timing typically pressures gold less than an actual rate increase.

All eyes are on Wednesday's CPI. Consensus expects a moderate print consistent with a Fed pause. Producer prices and import-price data later in the week will show how energy and import pressures feed into domestic prices. If those readings exceed expectations, bets on a December hike will rise and gold will face yield-driven headwinds.

My view: before CPI, gold will likely trade in a narrow range around $4,200, and a close above $4,192 would keep buyers in control. If inflation is soft and oil stays below $105, I expect attempts to push toward $4,250. If CPI surprises to the upside, yields would rise, and gold would fall back toward support near $4,125.

Technical picture: buyers need to take nearest resistance at $4,192 to target $4,249, above which a breakout becomes difficult. The most distant upside target is $4,304. On the downside, bears will try to seize $4,124; if they succeed, a range breakout would hit bulls hard and push gold to $4,062, with a prospect of extending to $4,047.