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The euro barely gained on the flash inflation reading for the eurozone, despite the high print: consumer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year in September versus 3.2% in August.
The market had already priced in such a result. The ECB's 25-basis-point rate hike on September 10, to a 2.50% deposit rate, has already put the regulator on a tightening path, and the odds of an October move rose to about 70% from 50%. Markets are also fully pricing three more hikes by the end of 2027. The new data confirmed that picture and did not change it, so the currency shrugged. The main beneficiaries are the hawks on the Governing Council, while the losers are those who had hoped for a pause.
The driving force behind the acceleration is clear from the breakdown. Energy prices rose 18.8% year-on-year versus 14.3% in August and 10.3% in July, meaning the pace nearly doubled in two months. The overall CPI added 0.6 percentage points, and most of that increase came from energy. The chain is simple: the war around Iran and risks to the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent to $105–107 in September; the September 12 closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline added tension; and European gas trades at 2023 highs. That hit fuel and household bills, producing the direct path to the Eurostat numbers. Energy exporters get extra revenue, while European households and industry pay the bill.
Other components show that second-round effects are only beginning, which is what the ECB and Christine Lagarde fear. Services accelerated to 3.2% from 3.0% in August, though they were 3.3% in July, so it is too early to call a new trend.
Food, alcohol, and tobacco rose to 1.4% from 1.1%—noticeable but modest in absolute terms. Non-food industrial goods, by contrast, slowed to 1.1% from 1.2%. That segment typically responds last to rising costs, so its weakness so far gives the ECB no cause for complacency. Isabel Schnabel on the Executive Board warned of this in advance: "At the current rate level, inflation is unlikely to return to target over the medium term," she said, citing gas as a particular concern.
Now the data challenge the regulator's own forecasts. The ECB staff's September projections envisaged headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with core inflation at 2.5% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. Those estimates were prepared before the flash release, and I expect they will be revised upward in December when the ECB publishes forecasts through 2029. Christine Lagarde already warned in September that the energy shock would keep headline inflation well above target into the first half of 2027. September's data make that scenario closer to the baseline than to a tail risk.
The hawks' position has a weakness that should not be underestimated. Eurozone GDP grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, but the contribution was mainly net exports. Retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, down 3.4% in Germany. The composite PMI in August was stuck at 52.0, and the ECB's 2026 growth forecast is only 0.9%. Tightening in the face of a price shock and weak demand hits German consumers and industry, and that is why the regulator is unlikely to hurry every step.
In my view, the coming weeks will favor an October hike. I expect the probability of a 2.75% deposit rate to rise above 70%, and if oil returns above $100, the ECB will be reluctant to wait until December.
Technical picture for EUR/USD
Buyers now need to reclaim 1.1265. Only that would allow a run at 1.1300. From there the path to 1.1315 opens, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On the downside I expect serious buying only around 1.1220. If there is no one there, it would be reasonable to wait for a fresh low at 1.1175 or to open longs from 1.1140.
Technical picture for GBP/USD
Pound buyers need to take the immediate resistance at 1.3225. Only then will a move to 1.3265 be plausible, above which further gains will be difficult. The farther target is the 1.3300 area. In case of a decline, bears will seek control of 1.3180; a successful break there would seriously damage bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3145 with the prospect of reaching 1.3110.
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