02.10.202609:31 Analisis Forex & Kajian: The Oil Market Has Already Figured It Out

Oil prices jumped sharply after news of a US naval reshuffle. Brent rose about 0.4% to $102.74 per barrel following a 4% surge on Thursday. The market reacted to media reports of a new strike group being deployed to the Middle East.

The reason was a Pentagon redeployment to the Persian Gulf. According to reports, an additional carrier and 10,000 sailors and marines are heading to the region, giving the US military more options to escalate strikes on Iran if President Donald Trump decides to do so. Various sources report the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has already left San Diego and is en route to the Middle East. Once it arrives, the US would again have three carrier strike groups in the region — the same number present in late April — although no decision has been announced to maintain that level of presence.

Military analysts note the current fleet configuration resembles a rare historical precedent. USS George Washington remains in the region while USS George H.W. Bush temporarily left. Before this year's operations against Iran, the last time the US maintained three carrier strike groups simultaneously in the region was 2003, during the initial phase of the Iraq invasion. The redeployment therefore raises US military presence in the Middle East to levels comparable with the largest operations of the past two decades, not a routine rotation.

The carrier movements come against direct statements from Trump. He said stronger military strikes on Iran are "possible" after the November midterm elections, linking escalation to the domestic political calendar rather than purely military necessity.

The US has also sent two additional missile batteries in recent weeks to protect oil and gas facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This deployment was intended to assure US security partners that Washington would defend key energy infrastructure if new strikes occur, which helps explain why oil reacts not only to strikes themselves but also to preparations for them.

However, increasing presence is not without cost for the US Navy. Experts say maintaining even two carriers in the region for an extended period strains carrier forces, while keeping three carriers for the long term would be far more taxing. The burden falls on personnel and fleet readiness, while operational flexibility for commanders temporarily increases.

In my view, the third carrier's redeployment does not by itself make new strikes inevitable, since no decision has been made to sustain that presence, and Trump's tying of escalation to post-election timing suggests political calculation more than immediate military necessity. I do not rule out oil continuing to react to such news with sharp spikes, but without confirmed escalation of hostilities, prices will likely retrace some gains in subsequent sessions, as occurred after previous waves of military rhetoric.

Buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $92. That would allow a target of $96, above which a breakout will be difficult. The furthest target is the $100 area. In a downside scenario, bears will try to seize $89. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bulls and push oil toward $87, with a prospect of moving down to $83.