29.09.202609:37 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Crowd gets into panic

Apparently, the crowd panicked yesterday. Bitcoin's drop below $83,000 forced short-term holders to sell roughly 23,000 BTC — about $1.9 billion.

Such a spike in activity from short-term holders (STH) — those holding coins less than 155 days — is a classic marker of capitulation. Moving 23,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss indicates fear of further declines outweighed hope for a return to the highs. This is not merely a technical transfer but a psychological shift: traders who bought at higher levels lock in losses to avoid even greater losses if the price keeps falling.

It's important to note the metric records transfers to exchanges, not instant sales. Some of those coins may have been deposited to set stop-losses or used for margin trading. However, historical data show that in 70–80% of cases such transfers precede actual sales within 24–48 hours. That creates additional market pressure because sell-side liquidity increases while buyers, seeing the flow, step back.

In the current situation, the key factor is not the sale itself but the market's speed of reaction. If large holders (long-term holders) do not step in to absorb this volume, the decline may accelerate. But if price stabilizes in the coming days, some transferred coins may return to cold wallets, since selling at a local bottom often proves unprofitable. For now, the market is in a high-volatility phase where STH actions are the main indicator of short-term sentiment.

Keep in mind that STH behavior often precedes larger moves. Their capitulation can become the very event that brings a local bottom sooner than most expect. Experienced traders often view such spikes in loss-incurring transfers as a signal to gradually build positions, because panic selling exhausts sellers and sets the stage for a reversal.

Nevertheless, you cannot ignore the risk of further declines. If a second wave follows these 23,000 BTC — triggered by medium-term investors — liquidity could dry up, and price could fall to levels many consider support but which may turn out to be only interim.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $84,900, which would open a direct path to $87,000, and then to $89,000 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $83,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $81,300. The next extended downside target would be around $79,400.

Technical outlook for Ethereum

A clear close above $2,710 opens the way to $2,770. A further target would be the high near $2,872 — a break above which would reinforce bullish sentiment and restore buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $2,648. A return below that area could quickly send ETH toward $2,578. The next extended downside target would be around $2,486.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.