16.09.202612:03 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: ECB's Hawkish Stance Supports the Euro Ahead of the FOMC Decision

The EUR/USD pair is attempting to recover. However, spot prices remain near the monthly low set on Monday. Traders are closely awaiting the FOMC decisions, which are expected to provide a new catalyst for the market.

Today marks the end of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, and analysts expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Attention should also be paid to the updated economic projections; their analysis, along with comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the press conference, will help identify the potential outlook for interest rate changes over the coming months. These projections will have a significant impact on the short-term dynamics of the US dollar and, consequently, on the EUR/USD pair.

Ahead of this key central bank event, inflationary risks associated with rising energy prices are increasing expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy. In particular, oil prices rose on Tuesday to their highest levels since May 20 amid growing concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East.

In addition, the active increase in government and corporate borrowing has contributed to the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reaching its highest level since April 2007, supporting the dollar and creating additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Moreover, amid the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, the dollar is receiving support as a safe-haven asset, which is also benefiting the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US currency against a basket of other currencies and remains near a two-week high.

Nevertheless, the European Central Bank's hawkish stance is providing some support for the euro and limiting the decline in the EUR/USD pair. However, given the current macroeconomic environment, any intraday recovery attempts are likely to encounter active selling and remain limited.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is currently holding near its monthly low, while its potential upside is constrained by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), confirming a moderate bearish bias in the short term. A break above this level would open the way toward the 200-day EMA, making it easier for buyers to push the pair higher.

On the other hand, the 50-day SMA is providing the main support, followed by the round 1.1500 level. The oscillators are mixed, so the pair may remain in a sideways range.