15.09.202609:07 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 15. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade review and trading tips for the British pound

The price test at 1.3492 occurred when the MACD indicator moved far above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. The second test of 1.3492 triggered my Scenario No. 2 for selling the pound, producing a decline of more than 30 pips.

Without significant UK and US macro releases, the pound continued to lose ground against the dollar, updating a monthly low. GBP/USD today offers a real chance to reverse this dynamic because labor-market data are in the spotlight: changes in jobless claims, the unemployment rate, and average-earnings dynamics.

Economists forecast unemployment to remain at 5.2%. If the figure prints higher than expected, that would be an unequivocally negative signal for the pound: rising unemployment typically indicates cooling activity and reduces the likelihood of further Bank of England tightening. Without the prospect of a rate rise, the pair loses one of the few arguments for a recovery. Jobless-claims figures will complement the picture by showing whether applications continue to rise and will confirm or refute the headline unemployment signal.

Average-earnings dynamics are also important today and are forecast to slow. For the BoE, this indicator remains a key input when assessing inflationary risks from the labor market, since faster wage growth traditionally feeds services inflation. Slowing wages weaken the case for a tougher stance and could exert additional pressure on the pair. Given that the pound already trades under the weight of budget concerns and broad dollar strength, weaker wages combined with an unemployment rate above 5.2% risks sending GBP/USD to new lows, while unexpectedly strong prints on both measures could give the pair grounds for a short corrective rally.

For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if price reaches the entry area around 1.3482 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3515 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3515, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move from that level). Expect pound strength only as part of a correction. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3466 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect moves to the opposite levels 1.3482 and 1.3515.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3466 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3436, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Bad news will restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3482 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3466 and 1.3436.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.