15.09.202604:45 Analisis Forex & Kajian: How to Watch on September 15? Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of macroeconomic releases:

Only a few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Tuesday. In the UK, relatively important reports on unemployment, claimant counts and wages will be released today. In Germany and the EU, the ZEW economic-sentiment indices will be released. In the US, the weekly ADP labor report is due. Of all these releases, only the UK unemployment rate is of any real interest. In our view, market attention this week will be 90% focused on the Federal Reserve meeting.

Review of fundamental events:

Among Tuesday's fundamental events, note a speech by Isabel Schnabel. However, the European Central Bank meeting took place last Thursday, so the market has already received all necessary information. ECB Governing Council members are unlikely to draw new conclusions and share fresh information before further inflation reports are released. The ECB's stance is clear: it is ready to continue tightening monetary policy in response to high inflation. However, for the second time in recent months, the market has ignored the ECB's tightening.

The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The US and Iran are not currently negotiating; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia and actively attack its facilities. Donald Trump has announced an unprecedented economic operation to destroy Iran and threatens sanctions against any countries that in any way interact with it. So far, nobody has backed Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be carried out is unknown. The conflict persists; the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is under threat of blockade. Oil prices are rising...

General conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, currency pairs will likely come under pressure again. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1527–1.1531 area, and the pound from the 1.3456–1.3476 area. The downward correction in the euro and the pound may be completed this week, since traders have essentially already priced in the "hawkish" decision.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.