14.09.202604:08 Analisis Forex & Kajian: What to Watch on September 14? Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of macroeconomic releases:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday. Therefore, traders will not receive any important macroeconomic information today. In recent months, the market has ignored many reports and focused entirely on the key ones. Federal Reserve monetary policy is the top priority, so the market prefers to react only to related reports—namely US labor market data, inflation, and economic growth.

Review of fundamental events:

Among fundamental events on Friday, note another speech by Christine Lagarde, as well as remarks by Isabel Schnabel. The European Central Bank meeting took place last Thursday, so the market already has all necessary information. Lagarde is unlikely to surprise traders today with information she kept silent about yesterday. The ECB's stance is clear: it is ready to continue tightening monetary policy in response to high inflation. However, for the second time in recent months, the market simply ignored the ECB's tightening.

The geopolitical backdrop remains unsatisfactory. The US and Iran are not currently conducting negotiations; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia and actively attack its facilities. Donald Trump has announced an unprecedented economic operation to destroy Iran and threatens sanctions against any countries that interact with it. So far, no one has supported Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. The conflict continues; the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is under threat of blockade. Oil prices are rising...

General conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, currency pairs will likely trade sluggishly again. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1584–1.1594 area, and the pound from the 1.3456–1.3476 area. The downward correction in the euro and the pound may already be complete or nearly complete. The market's attention is focused on the Fed meeting on Wednesday, but it still doubts the Fed will take an overtly hawkish stance.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.