10.09.202614:11 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 10 (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The price test of 1.1629 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

The August report confirmed an acceleration in German inflation to 2.9% year-on-year, and the preliminary estimate was fully confirmed. However, a closer look at the structure shows that the increase is driven entirely by energy prices rather than by broad-based price growth. In my view, this is an important factor, as this inflationary increase is driven by external rather than domestic factors. It is worth noting that household electricity, gas, and heating bills even declined compared with last year due to government measures, while only high gasoline prices are pushing the overall figure higher. In other words, the authorities have measures to contain utility tariffs, but not fuel prices. For the ECB, which is raising its rate to 2.5% today, this is another reminder that the energy factor continues to put pressure on inflation.

Clearly, the euro will face a busy second half of the day, as in addition to the ECB's own meeting, the market will receive important U.S. data on producer prices, existing home sales, and initial jobless claims. The Producer Price Index reflects inflation at an earlier stage, before prices reach consumers, and therefore a deviation from the forecast could significantly alter expectations regarding Fed policy. This is particularly interesting to me given that the dollar has looked weak recently and has shown little reaction to economic data.

The outlook for the single currency is as follows: if U.S. inflation comes in above forecasts, demand for the dollar may return, limiting the upward potential of EUR/USD. However, the ECB and Lagarde's tone will primarily determine the pair's direction today, while U.S. data will be a secondary factor. I believe that if inflation data are soft and the central bank sends hawkish signals, the euro will have a good chance of rising, while strong PPI data could allow the dollar to recover some of its recent losses.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1639 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1675. At 1.1675, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1616 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1639 and 1.1675 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1616 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1584, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1639 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1616 and 1.1584 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – indicates the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line indicates – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicates the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.