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Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to recover after reaching an almost four-week low earlier on Wednesday, maintaining a moderately negative tone. However, the US dollar continues to strengthen, preventing the precious metal from recovering. Expectations among market participants for a September Fed rate hike are increasing. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices to new highs since July 24, fueling concerns about inflation and reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. This factor, together with geopolitical risks, is weighing on demand for gold.
Societe Generale interest-rate strategists warn that the recent sell-off leaves the US Treasury yield curve vulnerable to further increases in long-term yields. According to them, "at the current pace, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries could reach 5%." They view this as confirmation that the bearish trend is continuing, as investors are increasingly considering how much additional term premium the market will require, while expectations regarding Fed policy remain tilted toward further tightening.
For better trading opportunities, traders may wait for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. These labor market figures will provide additional signals regarding the future outlook for Fed monetary policy, which, in turn, will affect the dollar and provide fresh momentum for the precious metal.
Nevertheless, the current fundamental situation appears to favor bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the downside. In this regard, any attempts at a recovery are more likely to be viewed as selling opportunities and carry the risk of a rapid decline.
From a technical perspective, gold has found support at the 200-day EMA, just above the round $4,300 level. A break below this level would be viewed as a new trigger for the bears. The next support is likely to be around $4,220. Upside resistance is provided by the 100-day SMA near $4,360. At the same time, the oscillators are mixed, so it can be said that gold is not ready to give up. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into negative territory, indicating weakness among the bulls.
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