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Gold (XAU/USD) is posting moderate intraday losses while remaining close to the one-and-a-half-week low recorded the previous day. Comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh last Friday strengthened market expectations of an imminent rate hike, weighing on gold.
Warsh delivered an unexpectedly hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, pointing to the possibility of higher interest rates if inflation does not slow significantly. Another factor is the rise in energy prices caused by escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which has revived concerns about persistent inflation and strengthened expectations of higher interest rates. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders currently estimate the probability of the Fed raising borrowing costs at its upcoming September 15–16 meeting at around 65%. This, together with geopolitical uncertainty, is supporting a recovery in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset after its decline on Monday and putting additional pressure on gold prices.
Recent developments in the Middle East, in which US forces struck Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, have added to tensions. This was the first such strike since late July, prompting Iran to attack US air bases in Jordan in response. In addition, Iran reported using drones against Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. US President Donald Trump warned of the possibility of further military action and threatened a "tough" strike against Iran, thereby maintaining the geopolitical risk premium, which continues to support oil prices and the US dollar.
Nevertheless, traders should refrain from opening aggressive directional positions and wait for the release of key US macroeconomic data scheduled for the beginning of the new month. The busy week begins with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings data, both due today. The main focus should be on the US monthly Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday. Given the fundamental backdrop described above, the outlook favors dollar bulls, indicating that the path of least resistance for gold prices is lower.
From a technical perspective, after breaking below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), the bears may target the 200-day EMA. However, the oscillators have not yet moved into negative territory, indicating that the bulls still have some strength. Resistance is now at the 20-day SMA, followed by the 100-day SMA, above which the bulls could regain momentum.
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