01.09.202608:33 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 1. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3546 occurred as the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the pound. However, the pair did not experience significant growth.

The lack of important U.S. data set the tone for trading yesterday and allowed the dollar to give up some ground against riskier assets, though this did not significantly help the British pound. The pound only partially took advantage of this pause, strengthening slightly against the dollar but failing to break out of the sideways channel.

Today, the British currency enters the first half of the day with a focus on a significant block of data, including the manufacturing PMI, data on approved mortgage applications, and net loans to individuals. The manufacturing index is a leading indicator, as it captures shifts in sentiment within the industry first. At the same time, mortgage approvals and consumer lending serve as a barometer for demand in interest-sensitive segments. Through these channels, the reports influence expectations regarding Bank of England policy.

The outlook for the pair is cautious. Weak numbers, particularly in the manufacturing sector, could quickly return pressure to GBP/USD, as a decline in business activity would undermine confidence in the economy's strength. A strong result, on the other hand, would provide support for the pound; however, given the dollar's strength following the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, it will be challenging to maintain that support.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3551 (the green line on the chart), targeting growth to the level of 1.3577 (the thicker green line on the chart). At approximately 1.3577, I intend to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the pound today is expected following strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3537 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards opposing levels of 1.3551 and 1.3577.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3537 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3515, where I intend to exit my short positions and buy back immediately, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3551, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards opposing levels of 1.3537 and 1.3515.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.