27.08.202600:43 Analisis Forex & Kajian: What Are Trump's Chances of Winning in the Congressional Elections?

I intentionally say "Trump's chances," although we are certainly talking about the Republican Party. The so-called midterm elections will be held in November, resulting in a complete change in the Lower House of Congress and the reelection of 33 of 100 senators. Since Republicans currently dominate both chambers, allowing Trump to make most decisions unilaterally, Trump must secure victory. For Trump, a Republican win means continuing to manage the entire country at his discretion without needing Congressional approval. Democrats still can block some bills in the Senate, as certain decisions require 60% or more of the votes. While Republicans hold a majority in the Senate, it is minimal. Nonetheless, most of Trump's regulations pass through both chambers without major issues. The results are evident.

That's why I have repeatedly said that Democrats are now Iran's best friends, as strange as that may sound. I also mentioned that Iran's main goal is to maintain the current situation in the Middle East until the elections. If the situation resolves, Trump will declare victory, and his ratings will rise. In this case, the president could maintain full power and, by December or January of the following year, resume strikes and other pressure on Tehran. Tehran, on the other hand, aims for the defeat of Republicans, counting on the support of Democrats, who relentlessly criticize Trump for his military campaign in the Middle East.

So what are the chances for Republicans in the upcoming elections? They are not as bad as it seems. Clearly, there will not be a situation where all Republican candidates lose. Republicans are under a barrage of criticism but have a steadfast army of supporters, approximately 25% of the total electorate. These voters will vote for them regardless. However, the overall number of elected officials may be significantly lower than in previous elections, and the composition of the House of Representatives will become much more democratic.

Overall, I have little doubt that Republicans will lose the House of Representatives, but a devastating defeat is not expected. Americans also criticize Democrats for their weak opposition to Trump's policies. However, a scheme may have worked, allowing Joe Biden to win the presidential election when Americans voted not "for Biden" but "against Trump." Since there were only two candidates, Americans chose the lesser of two evils. This could lead to Trump's return in four years...

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend and has presumably entered a new upward wave sequence in the short term. In my view, now is an excellent time to establish long positions. Wave 5 in C has taken a truncated form. If the downward segment of the trend that began on January 28 does not take on a more extended five-wave appearance (which requires a strong news background in favor of the dollar), the EUR/USD instrument is at the very beginning of a new, prolonged upward segment of the trend, with targets scattered up to the 25th figure.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has a completely understandable appearance now. We now see a clear A-B-C corrective structure on the charts, which is complete. Therefore, I expect the formation of an upward wave sequence that takes on an impulsive form and coincides with the impulsive structure of the EUR/USD instrument. If this is the case, the pound is currently in the third wave, with the targets of the entire trend segment located above the 39th figure. In the coming months, I will consider trading only on the upside.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.