25.08.202616:02 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – August 25 (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of 1.1663 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that this was the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 10 points.

The single currency strengthened following two German reports, both of which pointed to an improvement in economic conditions. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.8 from 86.7 a month earlier, reaching its highest level in almost a year, while both the assessment of the current situation and expectations improved. Since the Ifo Index reflects business sentiment and is one of the first indicators to capture changes in the economic cycle, its rise became an important signal of a recovery. Sentiment was also supported by an upward revision to second-quarter GDP, to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year.

In the second half of the day, the euro will await U.S. economic data that could put renewed pressure on the single currency. The Consumer Confidence Index, new home sales, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. Consumer confidence is important because it allows the market to assess consumers' willingness to spend and, consequently, the prospects for economic growth, while new home sales and manufacturing data will provide additional information on demand and business activity. The outlook for the single currency is cautious. Strong data could lead to a more substantial rise in the dollar against risk-sensitive assets, putting pressure on EUR/USD.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1670 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1686. At 1.1686, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be expected today only if U.S. economic data is weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1659 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1670 and 1.1686 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1659 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1634, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Renewed pressure on the pair can be expected if the U.S. data is strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1670 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1659 and 1.1634 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.