25.08.202612:03 Analisis Forex & Kajian: XAU/USD: analysis and forecast. Gold attracts sellers as US dollar strengthens

Today, Tuesday, gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade below the $4,650 mark. However, the absence of a significant decline calls for caution before opening short positions.

There is a view that the US dollar will continue its recovery after hitting a three?month low, since inflationary risks tied to energy?price swings keep alive the likelihood of at least one rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This, together with persistent geopolitical uncertainty, adds to the appeal of the dollar as a safe?haven asset and puts pressure on commodities.

In the wake of recent events surrounding the Middle East crisis, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday announced the start of a campaign to economically isolate Iran, warning that any country dealing with Iran could face US sanctions. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, also said that the Islamic Republic will halt all oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and other Persian Gulf routes if the economic war continues. This boosts geopolitical risk and is a factor supporting dollar strength.

Meanwhile, the initial drop in US bond yields after the Treasury's expanded buyback strategy proved short?lived amid concerns about the growing US national debt, which exceeded $40 trillion. This fuels interest in the so?called "devaluation trade," which may support demand for gold as an alternative store of value.

For better trading opportunities, it makes sense to wait for clearer signals on the Fed's policy trajectory as expectations evolve ahead of the FOMC meeting on September 15–16.

This week, attention should be paid to the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index due Wednesday. In addition, a keynote speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday will attract heightened interest, as it could provide further clues on interest rates and thus materially affect the US dollar and gold prices.

At the same time, the current fundamental picture calls for waiting for a more substantial continuation of selling before concluding that XAU/USD has topped out near $4,700 and is ready for further declines.

Technically, the recent breach of the 200?day SMA is seen as a powerful trigger for the bulls. But with the relative strength index (RSI) in overbought territory, further intraday upside for the precious metal is constrained. Momentum oscillators remain positive, however, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. Immediate support is at the round $4,600 level, then at the 200?day SMA just above $4,500.

Near?term resistance levels are $4,680, then $4,780, en route to the round $4,800 level.