24.08.202613:02 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – August 24

Today, I attempted to trade the British pound using the Mean Reversion strategy, as I did with the Australian dollar, but no major counter-movements materialized. I traded the Canadian dollar using the Momentum strategy.

No major US economic data is expected in the second half of the day, so the market's attention will shift entirely to a speech by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Traders are awaiting his plan for the economic isolation of Iran, details of which he is expected to disclose during a press conference. In a recent interview, Bessent further increased pressure on US allies, urging them to join the isolation campaign and stating that those cooperating with Iran should seriously consider the consequences. Such rhetoric could heighten geopolitical tensions and revive demand for safe-haven assets.

Most likely, this refers to China, which continues to actively purchase Iranian oil despite all restrictions. In any case, we will wait for details of the new economic isolation measures, which, in my view, are unlikely to have a significant impact on the situation in the Middle East.

However, such a scenario poses a risk to the euro and the pound. A tougher stance toward Iran threatens to trigger a new round of concerns over oil supplies, which are already under pressure, while a higher geopolitical risk premium traditionally strengthens the dollar as a safe haven and weighs on both European currencies. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD could come under pressure, especially as rising energy prices across the market are particularly sensitive for the import-dependent economies of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The pair is likely to remain subdued ahead of the speech, while its reaction will largely depend on the scope and severity of the announced measures.

If the economic data are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1686 may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1710 and 1.1727.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1655 may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1629 and 1.1601.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3647 may lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3672 and 1.3707.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3620 may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3594 and 1.3596.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.39 may lead to a rise in the dollar toward 159.60 and 159.83.
• Selling on a breakout below 159.13 may lead to a decline in the dollar toward 158.83 and 158.57.

Mean Reversion Strategy (return to the level) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1679, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1655, followed by a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3641, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3615, followed by a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7176, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7157, followed by a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3855, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3817, followed by a return to this level.