17.08.202612:42 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – August 17

The British pound performed quite well today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade using Momentum.

As expected, the lack of economic data from the eurozone did not hinder the euro or the pound. On the contrary, it triggered new buying in continuation of the bullish trend. Dollar weakness allowed the euro and the pound to strengthen further, and in the absence of negative domestic news, buyers continued to increase their positions confidently. As long as the dollar remains under pressure and neither the single currency nor the British pound faces negative developments from their respective economies, there is room for further gains.

No important US data is expected in the second half of the day. The agenda includes only the Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index. The former reflects business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector and is considered one of the early regional indicators, while the NAHB index reflects homebuilder sentiment and indirectly indicates the condition of the housing market. Both releases are considered second-tier indicators, so only a significant deviation from forecasts is likely to have a noticeable impact on the currency market.

For the euro and the pound, this backdrop is predominantly neutral. If the data are in line with expectations, the dollar will not receive a new catalyst, and both European currencies will continue to respond primarily to the broader market backdrop rather than the reports themselves. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are likely to move in line with current market sentiment, while a clear direction is likely to emerge only if the economic data deliver an unexpected surprise.

In the event of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1613 could lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1645 and 1.1664.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1587 could lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1566 and 1.1541.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3568 could lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3608 and 1.3650.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3530 could lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3501 and 1.3475.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.39 could lead to a rise in the dollar toward 159.60 and 159.83.
• Selling on a breakout below 159.13 could lead to a decline in the dollar toward 158.83 and 158.57.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return to Level) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.1622, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.1580, followed by a return to this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.3573, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.3542, followed by a return to this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 0.7138, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 0.7112, followed by a return to this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed break above 1.3867, followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed break below 1.3847, followed by a return to this level.