13.08.202613:39 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – August 13 (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the levels I had identified.

In the second half of the day, the market is awaiting a batch of U.S. economic data, including the Producer Price Index, its core reading excluding food and energy, and weekly initial jobless claims, as well as speeches by FOMC members Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin. For the yen, a stronger dollar poses a risk of further weakness, as it widens the divergence between the Fed's hawkish approach and the much more cautious stance of the Bank of Japan. This divergence has been weighing on the Japanese currency recently, and a strong Producer Price Index report could push USD/JPY higher, especially as Hammack's hawkish tone could provide additional support for the dollar. Weak data, by contrast, would allow the yen to recover some of its lost ground.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 159.46 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 159.76 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.76, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level. The pair can be expected to rise today, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 159.28 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.46 and 159.76 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 159.28 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.00, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 159.46 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.28 and 159.00 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.