12.08.202613:43 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Geopolitical Risks Limit Further Gains

The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate around the key psychological level of 1.3500. Traders prefer to remain on the sidelines ahead of the release of significant macroeconomic data from the United States and the United Kingdom.

Important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are due to be released today, followed by preliminary UK GDP data for the second quarter and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations may continue to support the US dollar and limit gains in GBP/USD.

Deutsche Bank analysts emphasize how unstable Fed expectations remain ahead of the release of the latest US inflation data. They note that "this morning, futures indicate a 51% probability of a September rate hike." They added that the current balance of risks could change quickly, depending on the data.

Expectations based on CME Group's FedWatch Tool show that traders are pricing in a probability of more than 75% that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of the year amid inflation risks associated with oil price volatility. Moreover, tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz are providing additional support for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Mojtaba Khamenei, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, said on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States met Tehran's demands. In addition, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen are intensifying attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, targeting Saudi vessels, which is driving up war-risk premiums.

These fundamental factors are strengthening the position of dollar bulls and call for caution when opening positions to continue the pair's recent upward trend, which has been observed over the past two weeks. Nevertheless, the recent break above 1.3500 indicates that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. At the same time, the oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. Resistance remains in the 1.3530–1.3544 level. The nearest support is the round level of 1.3500.