11.08.202612:28 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – August 11 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

Due to low market volatility, the price never reached the levels I had indicated, so I did not enter any trades during the first half of the day.

Clearly, the euro is spending another day in a low-volatility environment, as there are few significant market drivers. In the second half of the day, US existing home sales and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released. Existing home sales help assess how high interest rates are affecting demand in the housing market, while the NFIB index reflects small businesses' confidence in the economy. Both releases provide additional insight into the state of consumer activity and business activity. The risk of further decline remains for the single currency. Strong data could strengthen the dollar and extend the euro's decline, putting pressure on EUR/USD, while a disappointing result would favor the euro. As the dollar remains strong following recent hawkish signals from the Fed, it will be difficult for the single currency to reverse its downward bias, and its direction will largely depend on developments on the US currency side.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1547 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1571. At 1.1571, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today only if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1529 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1547 and 1.1571 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1529 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1507, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1547 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1529 and 1.1507 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.