10.08.202613:30 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders – August 10 (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of 1.3498 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.

In the second half of the day, the absence of U.S. economic data is likely to leave the pound's direction driven by overall risk appetite. Without new data, the dollar will have no new catalysts for a recovery, while the bullish sentiment that emerged following the weak U.S. labor-market report still has room to continue. Weak employment data previously undermined expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve policy and caused the dollar to fall sharply, and this weakness continues to determine the balance of market forces. Under these conditions, the pound is largely dependent on external factors, but the overall backdrop remains favorable. As long as the dollar remains under pressure, GBP/USD has an opportunity to maintain its upward bias and extend its recent gains.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3502 (the thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3519 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3519, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level. The pound can be expected to rise today in continuation of the trend. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3492 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3502 and 1.3519 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3492 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3477, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a reverse move of 20–25 points from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3502 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3492 and 1.3477 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always use stop orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.