10.08.202600:17 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Iran Ready to Open the Strait of Hormuz, But There Are Conditions...

On Saturday, August 8, Iran officially announced that the deal with Oman on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly complete and that Tehran is ready to open the strait. But don't rush to rejoice, as a list of conditions followed that must be met for the unblocking of Hormuz. Yes, you read that right. In August 2026, in the sixth month of the war between the US and Iran, it is Iran that is dictating its terms and making demands. Now ask yourself, is this fair? In my opinion, yes. Iran did not start this war, and if it weren't for Donald Trump, the Strait of Hormuz would still be free and open for all. But Trump decided to eliminate the "nuclear threat from the Middle East" and gifted the world an energy crisis. Now, the affected Iran feels entitled to demand compensation, to lift sanctions, and to charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It demands because it can. This principle is also upheld by Trump himself.

What is known at this point? Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that an agreement could be reached within a few days, but the Strait of Hormuz will only be opened when America pays compensation for violating the Memorandum of Understanding, lifts the naval blockade, withdraws troops from neighboring regions, cancels sanctions, and unfreezes Iranian assets. Meanwhile, Trump continues to insist on his version of ending the war, which still requires Iran's surrender and compliance with American demands and conditions. Therefore, personally, I see no basis for resolving this conflict. Trump will continue to stand his ground, and Iran will stand its ground. The Strait of Hormuz could become unblockaded at any moment, but it could also be closed again at any moment.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, how does Trump plan to resolve the "nuclear issue"? New demands and threats will follow, directed at Iran; Tehran will, of course, ignore them, and Trump will have no choice but to reintroduce the blockade of Iranian ports, Hargh Island, and conduct new missile strikes. When the missiles run out, American forces will resort to throwing stones. But Trump cannot acknowledge his defeat; hence, nothing will change.

Undoubtedly, everything could play out according to a more optimistic scenario, but unfortunately, I do not see it. The market may be filled with optimism, but optimism requires some basis and reasons. The objective reality of the past six months indicates that the parties are much closer to a protracted conflict than to peace.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward section of the trend, while in the more short-term perspective, it is within a downward section of the trend. In my opinion, now is a good time to try to form long positions, but the instrument may still drop to the 13 figure as part of wave 5 in C. Wave marking often surprises, so I would start adjusting towards buying now.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has become rather complex. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, while EUR/USD may have built 5 waves. Therefore, the anticipated wave 2 may take on a more complex and elongated appearance if EUR/USD builds a convincing wave 5 in C. Alternatively, the wave marking may take on a different appearance than it currently does. For the British pound and the euro, I am inclined toward buying in the medium term. If we abstract from the wave marking of the euro, I would say that the pound has begun to construct a new upward wave set.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100 percent certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.