07.08.202613:05 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations – August 7 (U.S. Session)

Bitcoin has risen quite strongly ahead of the important U.S. data and is currently trading at $64,900. Ethereum has also gained slightly.

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July employment data, an event that could significantly alter traders' expectations for the Fed's interest rate and, along with them, the direction of the entire crypto market. The consensus forecast ranges from 83,000 to 97,500 new jobs, with unemployment expected to remain at 4.2%, but the range of estimates among banks is unusually wide, from 65,000 among the more pessimistic forecasts to 130,000–150,000 among the more optimistic ones. This uncertainty in itself increases the likelihood of a sharp surprise in either direction and, consequently, the magnitude of the markets' potential reaction.

Current expectations for the crypto market are directly tied to the Fed's decision on July 29, when the committee kept the rate at 3.50%–3.75% amid an unusual 9–3 split in the vote, with three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents calling for an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike, the most significant dissent since 2016. This split determines two opposing scenarios for the market's reaction today. Weak employment data would deprive the committee's hawkish minority of arguments to again call for a rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which would be a positive signal for risk assets and could support the emerging inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which reached $626 million over the past three days. A strong report, by contrast, would strengthen the hawks' position and increase the likelihood that their call for a rate hike would attract more support at the next meeting, potentially triggering a sell-off similar to the one that occurred in late July, when expectations of such a decision alone sent Bitcoin down to an 11-day low.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $64,900, with a target of a rise toward $65,300. Around $65,300, I will exit the long position and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $64,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a reversal toward $64,900 and $65,300.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin when the entry point is reached around $64,700, with a target of a decline toward $64,300. Around $64,300, I will exit the short position and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $64,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a reversal toward $64,700 and $64,300.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $1,916, with a target of a rise toward $1,930. Around $1,930, I will exit the long position and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary at $1,907 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a reversal toward $1,916 and $1,930.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will sell Ethereum when the entry point is reached around $1,907, with a target of a decline toward $1,892. Around $1,892, I will exit the short position and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary at $1,916 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a reversal toward $1,907 and $1,892.