07.08.202600:10 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Trump Begins Preparations for Elections

The midterm elections in Congress are set for early November, so time is running short. Donald Trump's ratings continue to trend into negative territory, and the war with Iran has reached a deadlock. Tehran feels it has the upper hand and continues to ignore Washington at every turn. This is not a situation that works for Trump. He needs either a complete victory (which is impossible a priori) or an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue (also impossible a priori). However, it has recently become known that the White House has a very limited number of missiles left for strikes against Iran. Producing new ones will take years. As a result, Trump has effectively lost his main pressure lever—the "missile sledgehammer." Meanwhile, Iran's main lever of resistance remains intact—the Strait of Hormuz.

Since Washington's terms do not allow for a resolution to the war with Iran, and elections may be lost—making life significantly more complicated for Trump—he now has to look for ways to win the trust of American voters. On Wednesday, during a speech in Las Vegas, Trump announced his plans to implement a "Great Healthcare Plan." This document would provide direct payments to Americans into special accounts for covering medical expenses. While no details were provided, this information is sufficient to draw the right conclusions.

It is worth remembering that in the first year of his presidency, Trump cut all social and medical payments, which particularly affected low-income American citizens. However, Trump decided to save money, resulting in the reduction of these programs. Now, the leader of the White House wants to buy the goodwill of Americans by offering them a discount on medical care in exchange for the failure of military operations in Iran. Certainly, it is still a long way from passing a bill, and Trump may not even have time before the elections in November. However, the main thing is to show voters that the government is ready to improve and ease their lives. The key is to vote correctly in the elections, as one should not expect such gifts from the Democrats.

Based on all of the above, I see Trump's fear of losing the elections. He has already lost the war in Iran, as it is clear to everyone that Iran will not back down from its demands. How the Democrats will react to the proposal to distribute healthcare funding to Americans remains unclear. If they refuse, Trump will immediately leverage that by accusing them of stinginess and a lack of proper care for their citizens.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward section of the trend, while in the more short-term perspective, it lies within a downward section of the trend. In my view, now is a good time to consider forming long positions, although the instrument could still drop to the 13 figure as part of wave 5 in C. Wave marking often surprises, so I would start adjusting towards buying now.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD has taken on a rather complex appearance. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, while EUR/USD may have built 5 waves. Therefore, the anticipated wave 2 may take on a more complex and extended form if EUR/USD forms a convincing wave 5 in C. Alternatively, the wave marking may take on a different appearance than it currently does. For the British pound and the euro, I am leaning towards buying in the medium term. If we abstract from the wave marking of the euro, I would say that the pound has begun constructing a new upward wave set.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to play and often change.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100 percent certainty about the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.