06.08.202613:20 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – August 6 (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3455 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move below the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. However, the pair ultimately failed to decline.

The UK construction sector showed a noticeable improvement in July, helping the pound withstand pressure during the first half of the day. However, this was not enough to trigger any significant market reaction. The seasonally adjusted Construction PMI rose to 44.7 from 38.4 in June. Although the increase was substantial, the index remains well below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, meaning the construction sector continues to contract, albeit at a slower pace. As a result, the market interpreted the report as an improvement from weak conditions rather than a genuine turnaround.

During the U.S. session, the pound's direction will be driven by a relatively light U.S. economic calendar, with only the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report scheduled for release. This indicator provides one of the earliest snapshots of labor market conditions by signaling changes in layoffs, but in the absence of other major economic data, its impact on the market is typically limited. With no significant domestic catalysts for the British currency today, it is likely to take its cue from sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry point around 1.3463 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.3481 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3481, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal of 30–35 points. The pound is likely to strengthen today only if the U.S. data comes in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3451 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, a rise toward 1.3463 and 1.3481 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3451 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3434, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a rebound of 20–25 points. Pressure on the pound is likely to return today if U.S. economic data proves strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3463 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3451 and 1.3434 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be locked in manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be locked in manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.