03.08.202615:09 Analisis Forex & Kajian: XAU/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Falling Oil Prices Reduce the Likelihood of a Fed Rate Hike, Supporting Gold

Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a phase of sideways consolidation, holding above the $4,050 level. A significant recovery in the U.S. dollar from its June 17 lows remains the primary factor limiting the upward potential for the precious metal. At the same time, fading hopes for a peaceful resolution to the conflict between the United States and Iran, along with reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), may limit additional gains in the U.S. dollar, which in turn helps restrain selling pressure on gold.

U.S. President Donald Trump canceled the planned military action against Iran, stating that the framework of a nuclear agreement had been reached and that the Strait of Hormuz had been fully reopened. He also indicated that negotiations between the United States and Iran would resume on Monday, fostering optimism about a possible diplomatic resolution to the prolonged conflict. In addition, OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production in September triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, easing inflation concerns and reducing the likelihood of more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed, thereby creating conditions for gold prices to stabilize.

Nevertheless, traders remain reluctant to open new bearish positions against the U.S. dollar, preferring to wait for further developments related to the Middle East crisis. Market participants continue to focus on potential geopolitical developments that could trigger volatility across financial markets and increase demand for the U.S. dollar.

Investors are also awaiting the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data at the beginning of next month, which could provide the market with fresh direction. The week will begin with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, while the closely watched U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is scheduled for publication on Friday.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a sideways range. The nearest resistance is located at the $4,100 level, while the key support is the psychologically important $4,000 level. Technical oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that bearish momentum continues to dominate the market.