31.07.202609:09 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Gold Attempts to Rise Again

Today, gold has decreased by 0.5% to $4,083.01 per ounce after testing the $4,100 mark yesterday. Silver also lost 0.5%, dropping to $58.69, while platinum and palladium have declined as well. Despite today's pause, the metal is on track for its first monthly increase since February, with gold adding nearly 2% in July.

The main reason for the rise was Japan's intervention in the currency market to support the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate decision, which weakened the dollar by almost 1% against a basket of currencies. The dollar index modestly recovered on Friday, adding 0.2%. The weakening dollar made dollar-denominated gold cheaper for most buyers worldwide. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented on the yen situation in an interview, stating that the Japanese currency is significantly undervalued and added that he considers excessive volatility an unhealthy phenomenon.

Additionally, broad support for the metal this week stemmed from the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged amid inflationary pressures from the war in the Middle East. However, the 9-3 vote was far from unanimous and revealed a strong conviction among some American regulators that higher borrowing costs will ultimately be needed to achieve the 2% inflation target.

The scale of the metal's decline since the beginning of the conflict remains a significant reminder of the depth of the correction. Since the start of the US-Iran war over five months ago, gold has lost more than a fifth of its value, as high energy prices have intensified inflationary pressures and increased the likelihood that rates will remain elevated for longer, which has been a headwind for non-yielding precious metals. Nevertheless, buying waves during dips have helped keep the metal above the key $4,000 level in recent weeks.

The geopolitical backdrop remains tense and continues to add uncertainty. The US and Iran exchanged strikes again this week: Washington hit dozens of targets in Iran on Wednesday in response to attacks on American military bases in the region.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,124. This would allow targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The furthest target will be around $4,249. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control below $4,062. If successful, breaking through this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,008 with the potential to reach $3,954.