30.07.202609:34 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Gold Again Near $4050: The Market Wonders If Warsh's Hawkish Rhetoric Is a Bluff

Gold has fallen today by 0.8 percent to $4036.20 per ounce. Silver decreased by 1.1 percent to $57.11, while platinum and palladium also declined in price. After testing the $4100 mark on Thursday, the metal lost almost all of its gains from the previous session during unstable trading.

The sharp fluctuations followed the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with a 9-3 vote. A rate increase would create obstacles for non-yielding gold; however, the very fact of the ambiguous voting showed a growing conviction among some officials that higher rates will ultimately be necessary to curb renewed price pressures, which has made the market uneasy.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh insisted that the decision is not a sign of the central bank's inertia. "If inflation remains high for the forecast period, interest rates could certainly be part of the solution, but I wouldn't say it's the only way," he stated. Following this announcement, the yields on the most short-term US Treasury bonds fell, reflecting a rapid scaling back of expectations for rising borrowing costs. Traders have pushed their tightening forecasts to later in the year, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Nevertheless, the very instability in trading reflects deep market doubts about how to interpret Warsh's rhetoric. The markets are still undecided on whether Waller's hawkish comments are merely an attempt to legitimize himself or if he should be taken at his word. This is the key uncertainty of the moment: the market is unsure if it is a bluff or a real willingness to act.

However, according to several experts, confidence that this is a green light for more active investment in gold is cautiously increasing. The $4200 mark is seen as a key turning point for the metal's future trajectory.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical backdrop continues to apply pressure in both directions. The US has initiated a new wave of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on military bases in the region. However, both sides had briefly paused hostilities last week in an attempt to establish diplomatic dialogue. Gold has declined by nearly a quarter since the start of the war between the US and Iran over five months ago, as high energy prices bolster inflationary pressure and increase the likelihood that rates will remain high for longer.

Still, buying on dips has supported the metal near the key level of $4,000 in recent weeks, and gold is heading for its first monthly gain since February, despite today's volatility.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4062. This would allow targeting $4124, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The furthest target would be in the $4186 area. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control at $4008. If successful, breaking this range would deal a severe blow to bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $3954, with the prospect of sliding to $3906.