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28.07.202615:02 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Global semiconductor rout: Nasdaq under pressure, Kospi plunges

South Korea's KOSPI tumbled by more than 10% on Tuesday amid a broad semiconductor sell-off. Trading was halted after the index hit a session low, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunging sharply.

What happened and why?

Investors aggressively reduced exposure to chip stocks on concerns that rising competition from Chinese AI startups and domestic chip producers threatens the market positions of global leaders that had benefited from the AI rally.

A short-lived surge in sector stocks followed the record IPO of China's memory maker CXMT on the Shanghai exchange, but that momentum quickly faded.

Pressure intensified after reports that China had begun development of deep-UV (DUV) lithography machines — a development that stoked fears of a structural increase in competition.

US markets snapshot

On Wall Street, Monday's session closed mixed: the S&P 500 gained just under 0.1%, the Dow Jones rose by 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped by 0.2%, marking its fourth consecutive down session.

Nvidia fell by nearly 5%, and Apple briefly reclaimed the title of the world's most valuable public company. AMD dropped by more than 5%, and memory producers suffered material losses.

Overall picture

The Nasdaq Composite closed yesterday at 24,932, below the lower Bollinger band (25,008) and in oversold territory.

The price is currently below the Ichimoku cloud (25,607–25,982) and the SuperTrend (26,070), confirming selling pressure.

A distribution top has completed on the chart — the structure has turned down.

Bearish signals

• MACD at approximately -201 vs signal -86 — rising bearish momentum.
• RSI at 38.2 — oversold but not yet signaling a clear reversal.
• Strong resistance remains in the 26,000–26,500 zone.

Bullish signals

• The 23,875–23,953 zone (the 50% Fibonacci level's crossover with the 200-day moving average) shows a high density of buyers.
• RSI oversold conditions could produce a short-term bounce.

Key levels

• Support: 24,900 (VWAP), 23,953 (200-day MA), 23,092.
• Resistance: 25,657 (Tenkan?sen), 26,070 (SuperTrend).

A close below 24,900 would accelerate the decline to the 200-day MA, while a break below 23,953 would confirm full-scale bull capitulation.

Timeframes and aggregate signals

• 1-hour: "Sell."
• 5-hour and daily: "Aggressively sell."
• Daily summary: "Aggressively sell" — technical indicators and moving averages signal selling.
• Weekly: "Neutral."
• Monthly: "Aggressively buy" — indicating the long-term trend is still intact, despite near-term and medium-term selling pressure.

The market is under pressure: technical indicators confirm seller dominance, but support in the 23,875–23,953 area and a bullish monthly signal leave room for short-term bounces. The next technical tests to watch are 24,900 and 23,953 — breaks of these levels would likely define the next phase of the move.

Andreeva Natalya,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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