28.07.202612:47 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – July 28th

The British pound and the Canadian dollar were traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade anything using Momentum.

The lack of fresh economic data, as expected, put noticeable pressure on the euro during the first half of the day. A similar situation was observed with the British pound. Such conditions are not unusual. Markets lacking new catalysts tend to continue following previously established trends. In the absence of significant news drivers, traders often turn to technical analysis and remain within existing price patterns. In this case, yesterday's session established a certain direction for price movement, and until new, stronger catalysts emerge from the US side, this momentum is likely to persist.

The second half of the day will bring some interesting economic data. The session will begin with the release of US goods trade balance figures. This indicator reflects the difference between the value of goods exports and imports, providing valuable insight into the country's trade balance. A narrowing trade deficit may be viewed as a positive signal for the economy, while a widening deficit may indicate certain challenges.

The trade balance report will be followed by the release of consumer confidence data. This index measures the level of consumer optimism regarding current and future economic conditions. A high level of consumer confidence generally correlates with increased spending, which is an important driver of economic growth.

Particular attention will be paid to the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. This index reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector within the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Higher index readings indicate expanding manufacturing activity, which could support further dollar gains against risk-sensitive assets.

In the event of strong economic data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buying a breakout above 1.1370 may lead to a rise towards 1.1401 and 1.1422.
• Selling a breakout below 1.1350 may lead to a decline towards 1.1330 and 1.1310.

GBP/USD

• Buying a breakout above 1.3300 may lead to a rise towards 1.3330 and 1.3360.
• Selling a breakout below 1.3270 may lead to a decline towards 1.3245 and 1.3220.

USD/JPY

• Buying a breakout above 163.99 may lead to a rise towards 164.26 and 164.54.
• Selling a breakout below 163.76 may lead to a decline towards 163.48 and 163.18.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return to Level) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.1385 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.1357 followed by a return back above this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.3304 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.3271 followed by a return back above this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 0.6981 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 0.6949 followed by a return back above this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed move above 1.4125 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed move below 1.4102 followed by a return back above this level.