27.07.202613:49 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Advice for Beginner Traders on July 27th (US Session)

Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 163.46 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the US dollar.

During the second half of the day, the market will focus on US Durable Goods Orders, which could strengthen the US dollar and trigger another upward move in the pair. The indicator covers goods with a long service life and reflects companies' willingness to invest in equipment and machinery, making it an important measure of investment activity and business confidence. Strong figures would increase expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and push US Treasury yields higher, which would support the dollar.

The Japanese yen will react to this report through changes in the yield differential. A strong increase in orders could drive USD/JPY higher by widening the interest-rate gap with Japan, while a weak result would push the pair lower.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point is reached near 163.66 (green line on the chart), with a target of a rise towards 163.92 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 163.29, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the probability remains relatively uncertain.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 163.50 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal higher. A move towards the opposite levels of 163.66 and 163.92 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 163.50 level is broken (red line on the chart), which would trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 163.23, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair is likely to return if central bank intervention occurs.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 163.66 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal lower. A decline towards the opposite levels of 163.50 and 163.23 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further upward movement above this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further downward movement below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimise losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire account balance, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with oversized positions.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.