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On Thursday, the AUD/NZD exchange rate attracted new buyers following the release of Australia's monthly employment report and continued its upward movement.
According to official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the unemployment rate in Australia remained at 4.4% in June, while the number of employed individuals increased by 76,300, exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts. This is happening against the backdrop of growing expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which in turn is positively impacting the Australian dollar and the corrective course of AUD/NZD.
According to strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman, market prices are still leaning toward further tightening of monetary policy, with "RBA interest rate futures implying a 60% probability of a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year to 4.60%." However, they caution that "the risk of a shift toward a longer wait for a pause in the RBA's tightening cycle" is becoming relevant, and they believe that this position is likely to remain a "negative factor for the Australian dollar."
On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar is struggling to attract significant buyers as escalating tensions between the US and Iran continue to strengthen the US dollar, which is perceived as a safe-haven asset. However, expectations for a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at the September meeting, supported by inflation data that came in higher than anticipated, may provide support to the New Zealand dollar and curb the growth of the AUD/NZD cross rate.
According to strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman: "Inflation above the target level and more optimistic forecasts for domestic growth create conditions for further RBNZ interest rate hikes, which will positively reflect on the NZD." They also emphasize that at the last meeting on July 8, the RBNZ raised the official interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and indicated a "probability of further increases in the official interest rate at upcoming meetings," confirming the positive market sentiment for the New Zealand dollar.
From a technical perspective, despite strong bullish momentum, oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage in the market. For bulls to gain control, they need to overcome the 100- and 50-day SMAs.
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