14.07.202613:03 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on July 14 (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 162.22 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by only 5 points.

Such weak pressure on the dollar can be explained by the fact that the market is awaiting a series of significant U.S. events in the second half of the day that could change the overall market outlook. The June Consumer Price Index and its core reading excluding food and energy will be released, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his semiannual testimony before Congress. The Japanese yen will react to these events through changes in yield differentials. Strong inflation data and a hawkish tone from Warsh could push USD/JPY higher due to rising U.S. yields, while weaker figures could send the pair lower.

Regarding the intraday strategy, the focus will primarily remain on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buying USD/JPY will be considered today if the price reaches the entry level around 162.26 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 162.55 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 162.55, long positions will be closed, and short positions may be opened in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the level. A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential remains relatively limited.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

Buying USD/JPY will also be considered today if there are two consecutive tests of the 162.09 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 162.26 and 162.55 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Selling USD/JPY will be considered today after a break below the 162.09 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.74, where short positions will be closed and long positions may be opened in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair is expected to return if there is intervention by the central bank.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

Selling USD/JPY will also be considered today if there are two consecutive tests of the 162.26 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 162.09 and 161.74 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, traders can lose their entire deposit very quickly, especially when proper money management is not used and large trading volumes are involved.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.