14.07.202613:13 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations – July 14th (U.S. Session)

Bitcoin and Ether are trapped within ranges ahead of key U.S. data that could determine the market direction in the near term

Despite the possibility that the market could react with gains to a slowdown in U.S. inflation, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another outflow of $424.66 million, the largest single-day outflow in July. This movement completely reversed last week's modest inflow of $197.4 million, which had ended an eight-week streak of outflows for the first time and raised cautious hopes for a recovery in institutional demand. Since the beginning of the year, net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have reached approximately $5.8 billion, while June remains the worst month in the history of these products, with outflows totaling $4.51 billion.

The fragility of the renewed sell-off is also confirmed by overall market sentiment. The current consensus is clearly shifting toward a further decline in Bitcoin toward the $50,000 level rather than a continuation of the current upward move. Notably, price action has moved almost independently of institutional flows over the past week: Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 amid dollar weakness and rising Asian equity markets, while capital continued to leave the market through ETF channels. Many analysts view this disconnect between price movement and actual institutional positioning as a structural change compared with 2024 and early 2025, when price appreciation and ETF inflows moved in sync and reinforced each other.

At the same time, another notable shift is taking place. The volume of Bitcoin and Ether mentions on social media has fallen to a 12-month low, reaching levels not seen since 2020. Bitcoin is currently generating around 130,000 weekly mentions compared with the peak of 930,000 during the 2021 cycle, while Ether is holding near 40,000 mentions compared with more than 670,000 during the same period.

All of this once again confirms that a significant trend reversal should not be expected in the near term, and any gains in the cryptocurrency market are likely to be followed by renewed large-scale selling.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1:

Bitcoin will be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around $62,900, with a target of rising toward $63,200. Around $63,200, long positions will be closed and selling will be considered on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $62,500 if there is no market reaction to a downward breakout, with a potential move back toward $62,900 and $63,200.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1:

Bitcoin will be sold today if the price reaches the entry level around $62,500, with a target of declining toward $62,000. Around $62,000, short positions will be closed and buying will be considered on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $62,900 if there is no market reaction to an upward breakout, with a potential move back toward $62,500 and $62,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1:

Ether will be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around $1,790, with a target of rising toward $1,807. Around $1,807, long positions will be closed and selling will be considered on a rebound. Before buying a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Ether can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,778 if there is no market reaction to a downward breakout, with a potential move back toward $1,790 and $1,807.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1:

Ether will be sold today if the price reaches the entry level around $1,778, with a target of declining toward $1,759. Around $1,759, short positions will be closed and buying will be considered on a rebound. Before selling a breakout, it is necessary to confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2:

Ether can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,790 if there is no market reaction to an upward breakout, with a potential move back toward $1,778 and $1,759.