14.07.202608:54 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 14. Forex Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1426 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined towards the target level of 1.1392.

Iran's imposition of a maritime blockade has sharply escalated tensions over global oil supplies and strengthened the dollar. According to media reports, the U.S. Navy has extended restrictions to all Iranian ports and oil terminals. Additional uncertainty has arisen from disputes surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, as the UN did not see legal grounds for the 20% fee proposed by Trump for passage, while Iran's Foreign Ministry labeled the country as the protector of this route.

It is evident that the euro is losing its footing in such an environment. The escalation of the conflict drives investors away from risk assets and into the dollar, and the EUR/USD pair declines as heightened risk is priced in.

Today, key points will include the publication of the German wholesale price index and the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Wholesale prices reflect how the cost of goods changes before they hit the shelves, and are considered a leading indicator of inflation that influences the central bank's rate expectations. However, the focus will be on Lagarde's speech, as her words traditionally set the sentiment for the euro. If the ECB head refrains from making bold statements, the euro will retain the chance for moderate recovery against the dollar, potentially mirroring yesterday's dynamics.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1402 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1428. At 1.1428, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can only anticipate growth in the euro following good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1385, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1402 and 1.1428.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1385 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1357, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the reports are poor. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1402, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1385 and 1.1357.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.