02.07.202613:01 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – July 2

Today, the euro, yen, and pound were traded using the Momentum strategy. I did not execute any trades based on the Mean Reversion strategy.

The euro posted solid gains today, supported by positive macroeconomic data from the eurozone. According to the latest reports, the unemployment rate in the region declined to 6.2% in May, marking a notable improvement compared with previous readings. This development had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, strengthening the single European currency.

A decline in the unemployment rate is one of the key indicators of economic health. It suggests that businesses are actively hiring, expanding production, and demonstrating confidence in the economic outlook.

During the second half of the day, market attention will shift to U.S. economic data, which could trigger even greater volatility across financial markets. The key release will be the June U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This indicator is one of the most closely watched gauges of the U.S. economy, reflecting employment trends across most sectors, excluding agriculture. A sharp decline or a stronger-than-expected increase in job creation could prompt investors to reassess their market outlook and expectations for the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. unemployment rate, which is also scheduled for release today, will be equally important. A lower unemployment rate is traditionally viewed as a positive signal, indicating a stronger labor market and improving consumer activity. Conversely, a higher unemployment rate could point to slowing economic growth and increasing downside risks.

The final, but by no means less important, component of today's data release will be the change in Average Hourly Earnings. This indicator provides valuable insight into inflationary pressures and consumers' purchasing power. Faster wage growth could reinforce inflation concerns, encouraging the Federal Reserve to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy stance. Such an outcome would be supportive of the U.S. dollar and negative for risk-sensitive assets.

If the economic data come in stronger than expected, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1434 could drive the euro toward 1.1459 and 1.1486.
• A breakout below 1.1398 could push the euro down toward 1.1365 and 1.1328.

GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3355 could drive the pound toward 1.3390 and 1.3418.
• A breakout below 1.3325 could send the pound lower toward 1.3298 and 1.3267.

USD/JPY

• A breakout above 161.56 could lift the U.S. dollar toward 161.83 and 162.34.
• A breakout below 161.30 could trigger a decline toward 161.10 and 160.90.

Mean Reversion Strategy for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 1.1437 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price briefly breaks below 1.1395 and then returns above this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 1.3377 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price briefly breaks below 1.3220 and then returns above this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 0.6917 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price briefly breaks below 0.6901 and then returns above this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions if the price fails to hold above 1.4202 and returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price briefly breaks below 1.4174 and then returns above this level.