02.07.202609:21 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations for July 2

Bitcoin and Ethereum took a "step over" the sellers, demonstrating a significant increase after yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Bitcoin rose to around $61,200, while Ethereum jumped to $1,643.

In his statement, Warsh indicated that inflation risks have decreased and took an unexpectedly open stance on artificial intelligence, refusing to label the AI boom as an inflationary factor. Traders interpreted this tone as noticeably less hawkish compared to his debut in June, and the market reacted immediately with a rise. This was the first signal that the previous hawkish stance might be softening.

Warsh still avoided making direct forecasts about rates and emphasized that Fed participants are focused on price stability, citing elevated prices as the main concern. However, his willingness to acknowledge that inflation risks are declining rather than rising, along with his openness to the idea that AI might prove a deflationary factor through increased productivity, provided the market with the emotional relief that had been lacking after weeks of hard rhetoric.

However, yesterday's rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum should not be viewed as a trend reversal but rather as a reaction to a change in tone from the same individual who sent the crypto market deep into the red two weeks ago, using essentially the same words about the need to control inflation. Once the euphoria from Warsh's speech subsides, pressure on the cryptocurrency market will quickly return.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $60,700, targeting a rise to the level of $61,800. At around $61,800, I will exit my buy position and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of $59,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back to the levels of $60,700 and $61,800.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $59,900, targeting a decline to the level of $58,900. At around $58,900, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $60,700 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back to the levels of $59,900 and $58,900.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,629, targeting a rise to the level of $1,657. At around $1,657, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $1,609 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back to the levels of $1,629 and $1,657.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching an entry point around $1,609, targeting a decline to $1,579. At around $1,579, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,629 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back to $1,609 and $1,579.