26.06.202609:45 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD – June 26th: The Pound Remains Stable, but That Is Not Enough

The wave structure turned bearish following the FOMC meeting. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to exceed the previous high. It is difficult to say how much strength the bears will have this time, but the information support for the dollar does not appear convincing. If we disregard the wave structure, the bears maintain complete control of the market. However, with the conflict in the Middle East now over, it is difficult to expect sustained long-term growth in the dollar.

The news background on Thursday allowed the bears to continue their offensive, but the 1.3158–1.3177 support level held once again, providing support for the bulls. Therefore, the pound may gain some strength for a period of time regardless of the news background. There are no important events scheduled today in either the United Kingdom or the United States, while geopolitical developments are no longer attracting the market's attention. In my view, however, traders have overlooked the fact that the war in the Middle East has, after all, come to an end. Therefore, I would like to see a recovery in the British currency. I believe that the FOMC's hawkish tone alone is insufficient to support further gains in the dollar. During the first five months of 2026, the market consensus was that the dollar could strengthen under current conditions only in the presence of adverse geopolitical developments. At present, the geopolitical environment is favorable, yet the dollar continues to rise as before. I do not believe this is entirely justified, and I expect the market to attempt to reverse this move in the near future.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair has returned to the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3159. A rebound from this level will favor the pound and a renewed rise toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3277. Consolidation below 1.3159 would suggest a continuation of the pound's decline toward the 1.3025–1.3044 support level. A bullish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, increasing the likelihood of a rebound from 1.3159.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,700, while the number of short positions increased by 3,672. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 42,000 versus 114,000. Bears have dominated in recent months; however, while this dominance previously raised no questions, it does now because the news background has changed significantly. The bears' advantage is now nearly threefold.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has shifted its focus toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States could prove lengthy and difficult.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 26 contains only one secondary event. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be extremely limited or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions could have been considered following a rebound from the 1.3268–1.3277 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3158–1.3177. The target was reached. New short positions may be considered after a close below the 1.3158–1.3177 level, targeting 1.3025. Long positions could have been considered following a rebound from the 1.3158–1.3177 level, targeting 1.3268–1.3277.

The Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.