25.06.202613:15 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the US Session – June 25th

The euro declined following the release of disappointing German GfK Consumer Climate data. The index fell to -29.2 points, one of the lowest readings in recent months. This decline indicates a deterioration in consumer sentiment among German households. The pound also came under pressure after the release of weak retail sales data tracked by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

Markets are now expected to experience increased volatility due to the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data. Traders and analysts will closely monitor the upcoming reports, which could significantly influence the future direction of the U.S. dollar.

Particular attention will be paid to the U.S. first-quarter 2026 GDP figures. The data is expected to remain unrevised. However, any deviation from forecasts could trigger significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Alongside GDP, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index will also be closely watched. This indicator is one of the Federal Reserve's key measures for assessing inflationary pressures. A stronger-than-expected Core PCE reading could reinforce expectations of further interest rate hikes, while weaker figures may signal slowing inflation.

In addition, data on changes in personal income and spending will be released. These indicators provide insight into consumer activity and the overall financial well-being of households. Rising income and spending generally point to a strong economy, while declines may indicate emerging economic challenges. Taken together, these reports will provide a clearer picture of the current state of the U.S. economy and its outlook. Strong data is likely to support the U.S. dollar, while lower inflation readings could put pressure on the currency.

If the data proves strong, I will focus on implementing the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1360, targeting 1.1390 and 1.1410;
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1325, targeting 1.1270 and 1.1214;

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3185, targeting 1.3225 and 1.3270;
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3145, targeting 1.3095 and 1.3060;

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 161.90, targeting 162.24 and 162.44;
• Sell on a breakout below 161.70, targeting 161.45 and 161.10;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Fade Trade) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.1375 followed by a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.1342 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• Look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3190 followed by a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3155 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• Look for short positions after a false breakout above 0.6914 followed by a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a false breakout below 0.6885 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• Look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.4244 followed by a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.4221 followed by a return above this level.