25.06.202609:09 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 25

Yesterday, Bitcoin once again reached the $59,000 level, from which it was quickly bought back. This is the second similar bounce for Bitcoin from this area. Ethereum dropped to around $1,550 and has also recovered to $1,650 today.

However, recent blockchain analytics data indicate that significant pressure from large players remains. Over the past eight days, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have sold a total of 45,074 coins worth $2.7 billion. These are not retail investors or ETF flows; this is a category of large holders whose actions traditionally have the most significant impact on market direction. Such large sales over eight days explain why Bitcoin is struggling to find support, despite a historically low fear and greed index at 17 and minimum transfers from long-term holders to exchanges. Whales do not sell through retail order books but exert systematic and methodical pressure on the market.

In this context, the unrealized losses of the two largest corporate holders have reached levels that would have been hard to imagine just a few months ago. Michael Saylor's strategy, when Bitcoin fell to $59,000, reflects an unrealized loss of $13.88 billion: the company accumulated Bitcoin at an average price of $75,656, while current prices are approximately 22% below that level. This is why the CEO of CryptoQuant publicly urged Saylor to stop buying and give the market time to reset: continuing to accumulate under conditions where the market needs full capitulation only prolongs the cycle. Tom Lee's Bitmine is sitting on unrealized losses for its Ethereum position at $10.37 billion — the company holds 5.62 million tokens, accumulated through aggressive purchases at much higher prices. In total, the two largest corporate crypto holders are in the red by more than $24 billion.

The combination of factors paints a picture of an "active bearish phase" with no signs of an impending reversal. The average purchase price for investors is around $53,000 and has not yet been tested, leaving about 10% to reach that level, so another significant drop is not far off.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point in the area of $61,900, targeting a rise to the level of $62,500. At around $62,500, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $61,400 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below it, targeting levels of $61,900 and $62,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point in the area of $61,400, targeting a drop to the level of $60,700. At around $60,700, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $61,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below it, targeting levels of $61,400 and $60,800.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point in the area of $1,654, targeting a rise to the level of $1,679. At around $1,679, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $1,638 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below it, targeting levels of $1,654 and $1,679.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point in the area of $1,638, targeting a drop to the level of $1,605. At around $1,605, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $1,654 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below it, targeting levels of $1,638 and $1,605.