24.06.202613:40 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – June 24th

Today, the euro, the British pound, and the Australian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy, but the results were disappointing. I did not take any trades based on the Momentum strategy.

Although business sentiment in Germany is showing signs of improvement, this is doing little to support gains in the euro. According to the report, the Ifo Business Climate Index, a key gauge of business sentiment, rose to 85.6 points in June from a revised 85.0 points in May. Despite the cautious optimism reflected in the data, a number of factors continue to weigh on the German economy. Geopolitical tensions, elevated inflation, and ongoing supply chain disruptions remain significant challenges.

The British pound also reacted negatively to comments made today by Bank of England officials, resulting in another decline against the U.S. dollar.

Several key U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release during the second half of the day and may influence the currency market. Traders typically pay less attention to the current account balance, but this indicator reflects the difference between the value of exports and imports of goods and services, as well as income flows and transfers. A surplus indicates that a country exports more than it imports, while a deficit points to the opposite. Changes in the current account balance can signal the strength or weakness of a national economy and may also affect the value of its currency.

Another important release scheduled for the same time is new home sales data. This indicator measures the number of newly built homes sold during the reporting period and is considered one of the leading indicators of economic activity. Strong new home sales are typically associated with higher consumer spending, increased construction activity, and positive spillover effects on related industries, all of which would support the U.S. dollar.

If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the reports, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1360 may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1390 and 1.1410;
• A breakout below 1.1325 may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1270 and 1.1214;

For GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3185 may lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3225 and 1.3270;
• A breakout below 1.3145 may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3095 and 1.3060;

For USD/JPY

• A breakout above 161.83 may lead to a rise in the U.S. dollar toward 162.04 and 162.24;
• A breakout below 161.60 may trigger a decline in the U.S. dollar toward 161.35 and 161.10;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Fade Trade) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1365 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1325 and a return back above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3178 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3138 and a return back above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 0.6914 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 0.6875 and a return back above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.4240 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.4215 and a return back above this level.