18.06.202612:33 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Update on US stock market on June 18: SP500 and NASDAQ tumble after Fed's hawkish message

After yesterday's close, US stock indices ended in the red. The S&P 500 fell 1.21%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.34%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.98%.

But futures recovered a bit today after news that Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles near Paris. S&P 500 futures jumped 0.9%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.5%, and Brent crude fell more than 2% below $78 per barrel. All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of Wednesday's sharp sell-off in the US stock market — the S&P tumbled 1.2% after a hawkish Fed signal — indicating that the Iran agreement acted as a counterweight.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped four basis points to 4.45%, and 2-year yields declined two basis points to 4.16%, partially reversing yesterday's 13-basis-point spike.

Importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a clear hawkish signal at its meeting. The rate was left unchanged — the fourth consecutive meeting with no change — but the regulator explicitly said inflation is a more serious concern than labor-market weakness and that further rate hikes may be required to rein it in.

Structural inflationary risks, however, remain even with the signed agreement. Data show oil inventories in Cushing — the largest commercial storage hub in the US — have fallen to roughly 20 million barrels, which traders view as an operational minimum. Goldman Sachs warns that post?war oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover only to about 70% of pre-war levels. That implies a supply shortfall could persist for months even with the strait open, and disinflation is likely to be gradual rather than instantaneous.

In FX markets, the yen slid to its weakest level since July 2024 despite the Bank of Japan earlier this week raising interest rates to the highest level since 1995. Investors worry the tightening is not rapid enough to curb inflation and stabilize the currency; the risk of official intervention is rising.

The Bank of England is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged today, which would leave the pound more vulnerable against the US dollar.

Technically for the S&P 500, buyers' main task today is to clear immediate resistance at 7,494. That would confirm upside momentum and open the way for a push toward 7,518. Controlling 7,544 is another priority for bulls, as it would strengthen their position. If prices move lower amid weakening risk appetite, buyers must defend around 7,474. A break there would likely push the instrument down quickly to 7,451 and open the path to 7,427.