17.06.202615:39 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 17th (US Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price did not reach any of the levels I had identified, so I remained out of the market and made no trades.

Today, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.8% in May, while the monthly increase was only 0.2%. These figures indicate some easing in inflationary pressures compared with previous months, which came as a welcome surprise to many economists and market participants. The decline in inflation prompted modest selling of the pound, as tomorrow's Bank of England decision is widely expected to result in interest rates being left unchanged.

However, several equally important events lie ahead today. First, the US retail sales report is scheduled for release. These figures are an important indicator of consumer activity and the overall health of the US economy, as they directly reflect household spending. Strong data could support the US dollar, while weaker-than-expected figures may raise concerns about slowing economic growth.

However, the key event of the day will undoubtedly be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Although most analysts expect rates to remain unchanged, market attention will focus less on the decision itself and more on the accompanying comments, particularly the first press conference of the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh.

Kevin Warsh's profile and previous public statements suggest that he may adopt a more hawkish stance on inflation than his predecessors. If, during his first press conference, Warsh emphasizes the need to continue fighting inflation, hints at the possibility of further rate hikes, or signals a delay in future rate cuts, this could strengthen the US dollar. Against the British pound, such a scenario would most likely lead to a decline in GBP/USD.

As for intraday trading, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3434 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3495 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3495, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from that level. Further gains in the pound are likely only if US data comes in weaker than expected.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the 1.3406 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, a rise toward 1.3434 and 1.3495 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3406 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target will be 1.3348, where I intend to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound.

Pressure on the pound may return today if US economic data comes in significantly stronger than expected.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the 1.3434 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3406 and 1.3348 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy positions;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for sell positions;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before major economic reports are released, it is often best to remain out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you trade large positions without proper risk management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.