15.06.202613:11 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – June 15th

Today, due to the sharp decline in volatility during the first half of the day, no trading opportunities emerged.

Economic data from the eurozone for the current period were disappointing, although the euro reacted with only a modest decline. In April, the trade balance recorded a deficit of €1 billion, a sharp contrast to the €8.7 billion surplus reported a year earlier. The manufacturing sector posted only a marginal monthly increase of 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.3%. This marks the seventh consecutive month in which the economy has failed to demonstrate sustained growth in this area.

During the second half of the day, several important economic releases are expected that could have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar. The primary focus will be on the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, this indicator reflects conditions in New York State's manufacturing sector and serves as one of the earliest gauges of business activity in the United States. Readings above zero generally indicate expansion, while readings below zero point to contraction.

At the same time, data on industrial production will be released. This indicator covers all major industrial sectors, including mining, manufacturing, and utilities. Industrial production is a key component of overall economic growth, and changes in the indicator may signal broader economic trends.

Particular attention will also be paid to manufacturing output data. This sector remains one of the most significant components of GDP and often acts as a key driver of economic growth. Analysis of these figures will help provide a more complete picture of the current state of the U.S. economy and assist in forecasting the future direction of the dollar.

In the event of strong economic data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the releases, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1625 may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1645 and 1.1664;
• A breakout below 1.1595 may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1566 and 1.1535;

For GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3440 may lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3460 and 1.3490;
• A breakout below 1.3415 may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3380 and 1.3360;

For USD/JPY

• A breakout above 160.25 may lead to gains in the U.S. dollar toward 160.43 and 160.67;
• A breakout below 160.00 may trigger selling pressure on the dollar toward 159.80 and 159.60;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Fade Trade) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.1628 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.1585 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3451 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3405 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 0.7089 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 0.7063 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3990 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3953 followed by a return above this level.