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The GBP/USD currency pair will be influenced by at least three important events. The first, as we can easily guess, is geopolitics. The second is the UK inflation report for May. The third is the Bank of England meeting. These three events are what traders should focus on.
Let's start with the simplest—the inflation report. In April, British inflation unexpectedly slowed from 3.3% to 2.8%, effectively nullifying market expectations of the Bank of England tightening monetary policy in June. However, according to forecasts, the May report may herald an increase in the consumer price index to 3%. This is not a critical level that would prompt the British regulator to urgently prepare for a rate hike. Recall that the trend is important, not individual data points. The trend for British inflation is downward. Since September of last year, it has been slowing and reached a minimum value of 2.8% in April. Thus, without a significant increase lasting several months (as seen in the EU or the US), the Bank of England is unlikely to contemplate a rate hike.
Now, about the BoE meeting itself. Given that inflation is trending downward, there is no reason to expect a tightening of monetary policy. According to expert forecasts, only two members of the Monetary Committee may vote for a rate hike, but even if four do, it will not be enough for a positive decision. More "hawkish" results from the Committee's vote could provoke a rise in the British currency, but it is unlikely to be strong, as they would not change anything.
We have talked about geopolitics many times. Everything will depend on whether Iran and the US sign a memorandum of understanding. If so, the British pound will gain market support as demand for the safe dollar sharply decreases. However, until a comprehensive peace agreement that includes the nuclear issue is signed, we would not expect the market to shed the American currency widely. Without a resolution to the nuclear issue, conflict in the Middle East could flare up at any moment. On April 7, Iran and the US agreed to a temporary ceasefire, and what happened? How many times have both sides violated it since then? Therefore, a memorandum may be signed on Monday, and new missiles could fly on Tuesday. The Strait of Hormuz may reopen on Tuesday, but by Wednesday, it could be blockaded again. One must count their chickens before they hatch.
From a technical standpoint, the British pound remains in a limited range on the 4-hour timeframe, maintaining downward prospects that will only be realized in the case of a total failure of negotiations and the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, the formation of a new upward trend will only be possible if an agreement is signed between Tehran and Washington.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days is 71 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. On Monday, June 15, we expect movement within a range bounded by levels 1.3331 and 1.3473. The upper channel of linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.
S1 – 1.3367
S2 – 1.3306
S3 – 1.3245
R1 – 1.3428
R2 – 1.3489
R3 – 1.3550
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth from the US dollar. However, 2026 is proving super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price position below the moving average line will allow for trading down with targets of 1.3331 and 1.3306. The market situation is often changing, and the market continues to primarily track geopolitical news, which lacks uniformity.
Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, the trend is strong right now;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) – a probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators;
The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
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