11.06.202613:36 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the US Session – June 11th

Once again, only the Australian dollar was successfully traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. The Canadian dollar was traded using the Momentum approach.

Attention from traders and analysts will now shift to the release of key macroeconomic indicators, which may significantly influence market sentiment and the further direction of the currency market.

One of the most anticipated events is the publication of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May this year. This indicator reflects the price dynamics of goods and services produced domestically and serves as an important leading signal of inflation trends in the consumer sector. An increase in PPI may indicate rising business costs, which in turn can be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Particular attention is also given to the Producer Price Index excluding food and energy prices. This measure provides a more stable view of underlying inflation in the production sector. Analysis of Core PPI will help assess the persistence of inflationary pressure and its potential impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Finally, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will provide fresh insight into the labor market. This indicator is sensitive to short-term fluctuations and can quickly reflect changes in the economic environment. An increase in jobless claims may signal a slowdown in hiring or even rising layoffs, while persistently low readings would indicate continued strength in the labor market, supporting the US dollar.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.1550 may lead to gains toward 1.1580 and 1.1600
• Sell breakout below 1.1530 may lead to declines toward 1.1505 and 1.1480

GBP/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.3375 may lead to gains toward 1.3399 and 1.3420
• Sell breakout below 1.3350 may lead to declines toward 1.3330 and 1.3300

USD/JPY

• Buy breakout above 160.60 may lead to gains toward 160.90 and 161.17
• Sell breakout below 160.30 may lead to declines toward 160.02 and 159.80

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1561, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1515, followed by a return above this level

GBP/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3390, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3333, followed by a return above this level

AUD/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7015, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6988, followed by a return above this level

USD/CAD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4002, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3955, followed by a return above this level